Austrian mathematicians have revealed why you should put your money on either Brazil or Germany for the 2018 World Cup.
The two teams are neck-and-neck favourites to win the tournament, according to a set of millions of calculations based on hundreds of betting odds.
Experts said while Brazil have a 16.6 percent probability of winning the title, defending world champions Germany are close behind with a 15.8 percent chance.
The research team has successfully predicted several tournament outcomes in the past, among them the correct world champions Spain in the 2010 World Cup and three out of four semi-finalists in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
Researchers at the University of Innsbruck in Austria combined the odds of 26 online bookmakers and betting exchanges with a complex set of statistical models.
Using these calculations to simulate all possible games and results, Brazil and Germany came out on top more than all other teams.
The most likely final with a probability of 5.5 percent is also a match between these two teams, giving Brazil the chance to make up for the dramatic semi-final of 2014,’ study coauthor Professor Achim Zeileis said.
Though a final between the two seems likely, the models were unable to predict which of the teams would lift the trophy.
Brazil’s probability of winning the final against Germany is just 50.6 percent, leaving the defending champions with a 49.4 percent chance in the final.
Behind the two top favourites Germany and Brazil there were two other teams with a good chance of winning: Spain (12.5 percent) and France (12.1 percent).
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